Middle East News Spotlight: 2-19-12
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Middle East News Spotlight
For February 19, 2012
Editor's Note: INTEL ADVISORY - Things are quite convoluted behind the scenes concerning various situations in the Middle East. It's truly hard to know what's real and what is disinformation but much of the news media is filing conflicting reports and intelligence analysts are equally conflicted. There does seem to be a consensus that some sort of military action between Iran and Israel or the USA will take place at some point during the year - the only real question is, "When?"
From what we are able to gather, it seems unlikely that Israel will launch any surprise attacks this coming week in February during the new moon phase. Why? The White House is putting enormous pressure upon the Israeli government and keeping Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu from having the necessary majority vote within the Israeli cabinet for approval of military action against Iran - for the moment. That could change on a moment's notice, however.
There seems to be more of a consensus among regional analysts, pundits and media managers that any Israeli military action won't happen until at least late March but more likely in April, May or June. There is also a newly founded sense within the Washington cocktail circuit that if President Obama orders any military action against Iran (should Israel remain quiet) then such U.S. military action against Iran would not come before September or October. Ideally, the President and his political advisors would avoid any military action in 2012, but an outbreak of hostilities in late October might be a political benefit for Obama. If it is to such a political advantage, then Obama will be more inclined to order military action at a point where it wouldn't become a political boomerang that would sink the President's re-election chances.
Of course, Israel's patience is the primary factor. There are reportedly 4 Israeli cabinet ministers opposed to taking military action at this time. "At this time" is of major significance. Their reluctance to approve a military strike on Iran could be transformed into a call for action - on a moment's notice - depending on the ever-changing situation in the Middle East. For the moment, we expect no military action, but tomorrow is another day and circumstances could radically change in a 24-hour situation because the situation remains so volatile and fluid.
Meanwhile, check out these headline developments of the last few days and I think you'll see that there is a lot of intense saber-rattling for the region but that does not necessarily translate into an outbreak of hostilities in the next few days. We'll just have to wait for further developments.
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FOX News Video Interview:
Imminent Israeli Attack on Iran Imminent!
Says Former Chief of Staff for Netanyahu
In a FOX TV News interview by Mike Huckabee with Prime Minister Netanyahu's former chief of staff, Neftali Bennett says an Israeli attack on Iran is imminent. See the full 6 minute interview at the FOX News website. LINK HERE.
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Iran Poised For Big Nuke Jump
Can Quickly Expand to Weapons-Grade Enrichment
At New Underground Facility
CBS-News reports that diplomatic sources have told reporters that Iran is poised to radically expand its uranium enrichment at the fortified underground bunker at the Fordo installation outside the holy city of Qom.
Diplomats indicated that Iran is putting the finishing touches on thousands of new-generation centrifuges at teh huge, underground facility. The new equipment will be able to produce weapons-grade uranium much more quickly and efficiently than previous machines.
Senior diplomats stated that electrical circuitry, piping and supporting equipment for the new generation of centrifuges was now in place, yet the diplomats emphasized that the centrifuges were not yet installed. Even without the upgrade, the Fordo facility could still make nuclear warheads. For more on this developing story, LINK HERE.
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Iran Cuts Off Oil to UK & France
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Saudi Arabia Cuts Oil Output & Exports
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Israel To Deploy Missile Shield Over Tel Aviv
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US Drones Flying Over Syria
Syria Catches 40 Turkish Intelligence Agents
U.S. Defense officials have told NBC Television news that unmanned reconnaissance drones are flying over Syria to monitor the latest Syrian regime crackdown. The idea is to gather enough persuasive evidence to force an international intervention to stop the bloodshed in Syra. For more on this story and other related developments on the Syrian crisis, see LINK HERE.
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Iranian Warships Enter Mediterranean Sea
Transit Through Suez Canal
Israel Calls It a "Provocation"
Docks at Syrian Port
IDF on "High Alert"
Two Iranian warships have transited through the Suez Canal and entered the Mediterranean Sea on Friday (2/17) then docked in Syria over the weekend. More details, LINK HERE. More details, LINK HERE. Docking in Syrian port details, LINK HERE.
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IDF On Alert After Attacks in S. Israel
Rocket and missile fire from Gaza has prompted Israeli military forces to move to a high alert status. More details, LINK HERE.
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U.S. Military Told To Prepare
For Operations In/Over Iran
WorldNetDaily reports that WND Pentagon sources have informed the news service that the Pentagon has begun preparations for a number of operational plans and for counter-operations. Sources say the plans must be be submitted by February 22. More details, LINK HERE.
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U.S. Officials Believe Iran Sanctions Will Fail
Making Military Action Likely
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Britain Fears New Cold War Over Iran
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Turkey Won't Allow NATO To Share
Intelligence Reports with Israel
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FBI Stops Suicide Bombing of US Capitol
Federal agents arrested a lone-wolf terrorist from Morocco who was planning to use a suicide bomber vest to blow up in the U.S. Capitol building or a Washington restaurant. More details, LINK HERE.
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U.S. Nat'l Security Advisor Heads to Israel
For Consultations on Syria and Iran
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Israel's PM Says Iran Sanctions Not Working
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Israel Foiled Plot to Assassinate
Israeli Defense Chief Ehud Barak
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US Concerned That Israeli Defense Chief
Is Pushing for Attack on Iran
Report from Israeli Media
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Russian General Says:
Russia Would Use Nukes To
Stave Off War Threats
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US Wants SWIFT War on Iran
A View From Asia
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Israeli Military Staff Fears Syrian Attack
As Pressure Builds on Assad in Syria
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UN Chief Ponders Prosecution
For Syrian Crimes Against Humanity
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Iran Makes Its Own Nuke Fuel Rods
Iran has announced it has mastered the nuclear fuel cycle and is now able to make its own nuclear fuel rods for nuclear reactors. This means it no longer needs Russian fuel rods for its nuclear power plant at Bushehr. With this new capability, Iran could kick Russia out of the Bushehr program and begin using the reactor to make weapons-grade fuel from the power plant. Russia had previously guaranteed to the West that there was no reason to fear Iran making nuclear weapons because Russia would provide the fuel rods needed for the Bushehr nuclear power plant. It now appears that Iran could eliminate the Russians from the process and create a diversion for nuclear weapons fuel.
It is not clear as to the quality of the Iranian fuel rods. Experts will need more time to study Iran's new revelation. More details, LINK HERE.
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Iran To Cut Off Oil To 6 EU Nations
Iranian state news media reports that Iran will stop shipping its oil to France, Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal and the Netherlands. More details, LINK HERE.
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Russian Military Ponders Options
For Responding to Attack on Iran
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US Aircraft Carrier Sails Thru Hormuz
The U.S. aircraft carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln sailed into the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, 2/14/12 without incident. Iran had previously warned America to keep its warships out of the region. The American warship was reportedly tracked by an Iranian warship as well as Iranian helicopters and a reconnaissance drone. For more details, LINK HERE.
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Heightened Security in US
Over the Iranian Threat
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Russia & Iran Still Arming Syria
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Egypt's Gov't Media Accuses USA
Of Spreading Anarchy
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Iran Sheltering Al Qaeda
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Iran Threatens West With Heavy Casualties
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U.S. Monitoring Hezbollah Activity
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Japan's Prime Minister To Israel:
Israel Must Not Strike Iran's Nuke Program
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Obama Nears His Nuclear Moment
Presidential Politics Affected
Op-Ed Article Analysis
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