An A-O Intelligence Digest

For

February 10, 2012

Editor's Note:

The situation in the Mideast is clouded by mental game-playing by numerous nations. There's a lot of war rhetoric being traded back and forth. We're getting a difficult read on the intentions of Turkey. Who's side are they on or are they really on anyone's side? Compounding that problem is the health of the Turkish Prime Minister and with his declining health, his deteriorating internal political power compounded by a sinking economy. EU members are also divided on policies concerning both Syria and Iran. Then there's the obfuscation being played out at the Obama White House, combined with a sense of near paralysis as decision after decision involving Mideast Policy seems to boomerang on the President.

As if this were not enough, Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu is finding his own cabinet remains divided on what course to pursue in regards to policies regarding Iran as well as relations with the United States.  It appears that Israel simply does not yet have enough of a unified opinion as to what actions to take regarding the Iranian nuclear problem.

Unless something happens in Syria or Lebanon - Israeli leaders may not be able to have the political clout to order strikes against Iran.

Netanayahu needs 14 cabinet member votes for Iran strike - there is opposition within his cabinet for a strike - thanks to US pressure. At the moment, reports indicate Netanyahu and Ehud Barak lack the necessary cabinet votes to launch a strike. That of course could change on a moment's notice if something develops to alter the status quo.

Concerns grow that if Iran isn't stopped a new Egyptian-Iranian axis will develop (especially if Syria's Assad falls) given that Egypt is now coming under control of the Muslim Brotherhood and radical anti-Israeli fanatics within Egypts newly forming government. Iran is already seeking to cultivate an alliance with Egypt which would include nuclear weapons technology. This would be a greater strategic threat than the Syrian-Iranian-Hezbollah axis.

Egypt may yet partner with Iran, presenting Israel with the most intricate security problem it has ever faced. Over the past two weeks, it became clear that American military and civilian aid for Egypt, in place since the peace treaty was signed with Israel, isn't enough to keep Egypt from persecuting U.S.-backed individuals and non-governmental organizations.

Bring into the mix, the Russian government's determination now to back Syria and Iran. The Russians fear that the West is determined to create regime change for Russia via radical Islamic revolutions once Iran and Syria are transformed. Russian leaders recognize their own vulnerability to regime change by radicalizing Russian Muslims which are a substantial majority in some regions of Asia. In other words, Russian leaders see this as a forerunner threat to Russia's national security. China, aware of Russia's concerns also recognize they could face similar regime-change issues from a substantial Muslim population in western China. For these reasons, both Russia and China are siding with Iran as a means of stopping the perceived threat to their own national security while the threat is still far away.

Military Action Pending?

There are various intelligence reports from various analysts predicting all sorts of outcomes and the timing of such outcomes.

Debka reports a massive U.S. military buildup is underway in the Middle East. We're not seeing evidence of such a massive build up and neither do other intelligence reports, at least in regards to ground forces. We do know that there is a build up of U.S. warships, but this seems to be temporary in nature and not necessarily a committment to any lengthy buildup. This suggests to us that the Obama Administration is using naval rotation of forces as a signal of the potential for a U.S. build up.

There have been public statements by the Obama Administration, particularly from Defense Secretary Panetta, suggesting that Israel may try to launch independent, military actions against Iran later in the Spring - such as in April, May or June. Israeli officials have also hinted that action could come sooner. There is a "rumor" floating that Israel will launch an attack later in February, perhaps around the 21st when the new moon arrives again. Other sources seem convinced that Israel will attack during the following new moon in March - March 21st to be exact, which happens to be the first day of Spring.

Still other sources say this war talk is all just hot air and that Netanyahu's political situation is such that he could be toppled from office in the next few weeks.  This leaves us wondering what, if anything will happen this spring. The only real consensus seems to be that something will happen in 2012. Either war or else Iran will test a nuclear bomb. Most analysts are convinced some sort of military action will take place, sooner or later, perhaps not until the spring of 2013, after the U.S. elections.

While we find this hard to believe, we cannot rule out such a delay, unless Iran tests a bomb first.  Should Iran test a bomb then we do expect Obama to rule out any military attack and Israel will find itself constrained to refrain from any military response. This leaves Iran free to build up enough of a nuclear inventory to one-day launch World War 3 with Israel as the primary target.

At the same time, there is the Syrian wildcard. Syria's President Assad has stated emphatically that if his regime is threatened with removal, or if foreign interference develops, he will retaliate by attacking Israel first then the other nations involved. This could easily lead Israel into the use of nuclear weapons, if Assad makes good on threates to use chemical or biological weapons against Israel. Israel's Defense Minister has publicly warned Assad that the use of WMDs by Syria against Israel will result in the eradication of Syria and the destruction of Damascus, which would be the fulfillment of Isaiah's prophecy concerning Damascus becoming a ruinous heap.

At the moment, Assad's regime is teetering on the edge. His military is killing dozens if not hundreds of civilians almost daily this month with no sign of a letup. Yet, the opposition only grows more determined and grows in strength as more Syrian civilians who had been neutral or in favor of Assad now switch sides.

One thing which concerns us is the recent development of 15,000 Iranian troops to Syria plus the unwavering Russian support, including a Russian aircraft carrier battle group anchored in Syrian waters plus new Russian cruise missiles and anti-aircraft defenses for Syria. It could well be that Russia becomes drawn into a military conflict between Syria and Israel. Such a conflict could erupt at nearly any moment. For this reason, The A-O Report has been providing timely updates every day or every few days as needed to keep up with developments.

The Syrian situation is now becoming a major news story within the mainstream news media, particularly with the U.S. television news channels - CNN, FOX and MSNBC. There are reports that the news media has been quietly making arrangements for coverage, including renting out rooftop space in Tel Aviv and Jersusalem, just in case war breaks out with either Syria or Iran.

Perhaps even more interesting are media reports that foreign embassies in Israel are seeking gas masks and asking the Israeli government for maps with bomb shelter locations to be given to embassy employees. This suggests that there are foreign diplomats growing more concerned that a military clash is indeed coming.

We'll continue to monitor and report on a daily or near-daily basis, significant developments in the Middle East as long as conditions warrant such reporting. If needed, and able, we'll provide additional "intelligence " updates even if just "tidbits" of insight as needed without necessarily waiting for a weekly Digest publication.  One thing seems certain - the Mideast situation is not going to lessen any time soon.

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