War Watch Alert: Code Yellow 1-23-12
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War Watch Alert:
Code Yellow
1/23/12
Editor's Note: The following stories have prompted The A-O Report to issue a War Watch Alert, Code Yellow. This means we're on standby for an outbreak of military action in the Middle East, most notably an Israeli unilateral attack against Iranian nuclear facilities. The Alert will be in effect from 1/23 to 1/28 which coincides with the "new moon" phase and correlates with conventional military tactical theory that the optimum time for a surprise military air/missile strike is during a new moon when there is maximum darkness at night to help maintain the element of surprise by making it more difficult for defenders to shoot down incoming attack aircraft adn missiles.
According to various sources, both published and unpublished, the odds for an Israeli military action against Iran now stands at 50/50 during this 'new moon' phase. Keep in mind that the "intelligence" world is awash in rumors and speculations concerning Israel's intentions towards Iran. There are numerous indications that Israel will act this month, but the conventional wisdom is that before the end of March, Israel will take action. The odds of such action are placed at about 90%. We're inclined to think Israel hold off on any military strkes until at least February if not until March.
Meanwhile, we're posting below, the key mainstream media news stories related to the potential for impending military action by Israel against Iran. Please look for other Middle East region news in our regular weekly feature, The Middle East News Spotlight.
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Israeli Prime Minister Warns US General
Iran Is Past Point of No Return
Says Time for Military Action is NOW
Israeli Prime Minister conveyed to America's top general, that the Iranian nuclear program has moved past the point of no return and that oil and banking embargoes on Iran are too late to prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons. Netanyhu and Israeli leaders provided exhaustive briefings on the Israeli position concerning Iran during the general's brief visit to Israel.
The General met with Israeli President Shimon Peres, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and had three conversations with Israel's top general, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz along with key General Staff officers.
In a pertinent development related to the American general's visit, Retired Major General Asher Yadlin (former chief of military intelligence) provided a published article in a Tel Aviv daily Hebrew paper, "Maariv" and bluntly stated the situation:
"If Iranian leaders were to convene tonight and decide to go ahead with the secret production a nuclear bomb, the already possess the resources and components for doing so. This capability was once defined as the point of no return. As matters stand now, Iran's nuclear timeline no longer hinges on the calendar. It rests entirely on a decision in Tehran."
Yadlin's disclosure was the basis for Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu's claim on Thursday (1/19) that
"Iran has decided to become a nuclear state." Netanyahu added a call for "action to stop Iran before its too late."
It now appears that Netanyahu's patience for an alternative to military action against Iran has been exhausted. Bibi's remarks, along with the briefings by other Israeli officials were intended not only for General Dempsey, but for Dempsey to relay the Israeli positions back to President Obama.
The position of the Israeli government and that of Netanyahu is that new sanctions are too little, too late, and that NOW is the time to stop Iran's efforts at building a nuclear bomb as later will be too late.
From what we've been able to learn from hints in key media interviews by key Israeli officials, Israeli intelligence believes that Iran now has all the necessary ingredients to assemble its first nuclear bomb atop a ballistic missile within a matter of days or weeks. The situation is viewed as dire and grave by Israeli government leaders, yet we have no solid indications that Israel is about to launch military action against Iran.
There are rumbling rumors of movement of Israeli military assets as if in preparation for military action, but the only concrete development is the Israeli announcement earlier in January that it was shutting down its nuclear reactor at Dimona as a precaution to limit radiation damage as a potential Iranian missile target. Iran has previously announced that in the event of war, Dimona would be a specific bombing target for Iranian ballistic missiles.
Speculation is rampant that Israel will act alone to launch a surprise military action against Iran sometime this week during the new moon phase, which is considered to be a standard military tactical doctrine to ensure total surprise by operating in total darkness without lunar illumination of aircraft and missiles. The actual "new moon" occurs on the night of January 23 and into the morning of the 24th, with possible action occuring within 3 days or so on either side of those dates.
Given the recent remarks made by Israeli officials, speculation within the intelligence community is that Israel will take unilateral military action against Iran in a new moon phase either now or in February or at the latest in March. There are intelligence rumors reporting that Iran is already finishing its bomb assembly and preparing to install at least one active nuclear warhead atop a ballistic missile. Under such speculation, it is hypothesized by some that Iran could deploy at least one functioning nuclear ballistic missile against Israel by March or April at the latest.
Because of the situation, The Alpha-Omega Report is now in Orange Alert and prepared to move to constant 24/7 publishing as conditions warrant for military actions in the Middle East.
Late-Breaking Development: During the meetings with General Dempsey, Israel reportedly informed the general that Israel would give President Obama a 12 hour advance notice of Israeli intentions to launch surprise attacks against Iran's nuclear facilities. Israel's Arutz-Sheva cites a report from the London Times as its source for the leaked information.
The Israeli website reports that the Israeli government will NOT coordinate with the US any attack on Iran, although it is unclear whether coordination aspect is a mere rumor or a based on a leak by officials to mask the possibility of actual, secret military coordination. The Israeli report goes on to note that Israel fears that President Obama would try to stop any Israeli attack if more notice were given because he is concerned that Iran will respond by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and thus triggering an oil crisis and a spike in oil prices that could cripple the U.S. and world economy. It would also perhaps create re-election problems for Obama.
According to Arutz Sheva, Israeli President Shimon Peres told General Dempsey:
"I am sure that in this fight [against Iran] we will emerge victorious. It is a fight that does not belong exclusively to the United States or Israel, but a global struggle to create a safe world for all peoples.”
The Israeli leader's remarks (who by the way has been a peace-nik) hint of impending military action in which he expects Israel will emerge victorious against Iran. The implications are that military action could be sooner, rather than later.
LINK HERE for the Arutz Sheva article. LINK HERE, for further Debka.com analysis direct from Israel.
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Israeli Official Hints Israel May NOT
Give USA Advance Warning of Attack on Iran
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Netanyahu Says Iran Has Chosen
To Become a Nuclear Power
Says Action Needed Before Its Too Late
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U.S. Aircraft Carrier Transits Strait of Hormuz
Iran Backs Down, Fails To Retaliate
The US aircraft carrier, USS Abraham Lincoln safely transited the Hormuz Strait without incident Sunday (1/22). The American carrier was escorted by British and French warships in a show of unified force. The maneuver sent a signal to Iran that the western nations will not tolerate any Iranian interference in the Strait of Hormuz.
The action comes as speculation and rumors mount within the intelligence community that Israel is preparing to launch military action against Iran. For confirmation and details, See links below:
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USS Enterprise To Transit Hormuz in March
Defense Secretary Panetta announced this weekend that the USS Enterprise aircraft carrier would test Iranian warnings about transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The carrier is due to arrive on station in the Gulf sometime in early March. For more on this story, LINK HERE.
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U.S. "Miffed" As Israel Hints
At Unilateral Strike on Iran N-Sites
An Indian newspaper reports that the United States is not happy with Israel as Israeli officials hint that Israel may be preparing to take unilateral military action against Iran's nuclear facilities. The newspaper article sites leaks from Israel regarding a meeting last week between America's top general and Israeli officials concerning the Iranian crisis. The newspaper confirms our own intel sources as reporting that Israel will not give the White House more than a 12 hour notice of impending Israeli military actions against Iran. Read more, LINK HERE.
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Top US General Holds Private Talks
With Israeli Leaders on Iran Nuke Program
Israeli leaders met with America's top Pentagon general at the end of the week with promises of American partnership in Israel's security. Israeli President Shimon Peres told the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dempsey that Iran is the center of world terror and that it is the world's responsibility to fight Iranian terror. He noted that Iran seeks to control not only the Middle East but other parts of the world and noted Iran's attempt to penetrate into South America in violation of the American "Monroe Doctrine" which President Obama has ignored to date. For more on the General's visit to Israel, LINK HERE.
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On Iran: US & Israel Not Fully in Synch
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French Prez Warns of War & Chaos
IF Israel Attacks Iran
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Netanyahu Warns Jews:
Israel Must Prevent Elimination
of Jewish People
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu warned the Jewish people that the state of Israel must be the final protector of the Jewish peoples. He stated that "there is no loack of bitter enemies today."
Netanyhau added, "The will to destroy the Jewish people has not changed. What has changed is our ability to defend ourselves and our determination to do so." His remarks were interpreted as a warning about Israel's duty to protect itself against hostile intentions of nations such as Iran.
The Israeli leader's remarks come on the 70th anniversary of the Wannsee Conference of 1942 in the middle of the WW2 Holocaust. More details, LINK HERE.
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EU Agrees To Embargo Iranian Oil
Effective July 1, 2012
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2 Iranian Lawmakers Repeat Threats
To Close Hormuz Strait
IF EU Oil Embargo Sanctions Are Voted Into Effect
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